Goldman Sachs oil price forecast@The_Economist_Telegram

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Bitcoin’s recent rallies are still lacking meaningful spot demand.A large part of the recent upside has been driven by the futures market and leveraged positioning rather than genuine spot buying.Historical market cycles suggest that the strongest and most sustainable Bitcoin rallies tend to occur when both spot and futures demand rise simultaneously.For now, one important piece of the equation is still missing: Real demand from the spot market.Until we see that demand return, I remain cautious about the strength and sustainability of the current rally.➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖@RezaMacroEdge

Milton Friedman and the “Job Creation” FallacyDuring a visit to a canal construction project in China, Milton Friedman noticed that workers were digging with simple tools instead of using earthmoving machinery.He asked: “Why aren’t you using machines?”The answer was: “Because we want to create more jobs.”Friedman replied: “Then why not give each worker a spoon instead of a shovel?”The point wasn’t really about digging a canal.If the goal of an economy is to maximize the number of jobs rather than the amount of wealth produced, inefficiency can easily be disguised as “job creation.”More work doesn’t necessarily mean more production.@The_Economist_Telegram

Democracy Has a Math ProblemWe often think that designing a fair electoral system is mainly a matter of political choices and good institutions. But mathematics puts a hard limit on what an electoral system can achieve.Researchers from the Universities of Cambridge and Copenhagen recently demonstrated an “impossibility theorem” for two-tier electoral systems.The problem is that a system may want to guarantee three things at the same time:. Local representation: winners of individual constituencies get seats.. National proportionality: each party’s share of seats reflects its share of the national vote.. A fixed parliament size: the number of seats cannot grow without limit.The catch?As the number and diversity of political parties increases, you cannot always satisfy all three perfectly. Every electoral system eventually has to make a trade-off. Majoritarian systems, such as the UK’s, tend to prioritize local representation and stable majorities, often at the expense of proportionality.Proportional systems face the opposite problem: maintaining proportionality can require additional seats or compromises in direct constituency representation.So the real question isn’t simply: “Which electoral system is the fairest?”The deeper question is: When you can’t have everything, which principle are you willing to sacrifice?And that is no longer a mathematical question. It is a political choice.Source: Sebastian Tim Holdum & Frederik Ravn Klausen, Impossibility Theorem for Two-Tier Electoral Systems, Annals of Operations Research, July 31, 2026.@The_Economist_Telegram

The Shift in Global Economic Power Over the Past 200 YearsIn 1820, China was the world's largest economy, accounting for approximately 28.6% of global GDP. However, Europe's Industrial Revolution reshaped the global economic landscape.During the 19th century, the British Empire emerged as the world's leading economic power, reaching a peak of nearly 24% of global output.The 20th century belonged to the United States. Following World War II, America's share of the global economy reached a record 29.7% in 1944.But in the 21st century, the story is changing once again. By becoming the world's manufacturing hub, China has steadily regained its economic weight, reaching 21.8% of the global economy (measured by PPP) in 2025.India has also expanded rapidly, increasing its share to 9%. Today, China and India together account for more than 30% of the global economy.@The_Economist_Telegram

The United States holds approximately 46 billion barrels of proven crude oil reserves.The Permian Basin in West Texas alone produces around 6.6 million barrels of oil per day—more than every OPEC member except Saudi Arabia.On a global scale, the United States is the world's largest oil producer, pumping approximately 13.6 million barrels per day.The U.S. is also the world's leading natural gas producer, accounting for roughly one-quarter of global natural gas output.@The_Economist_Telegram